This year’s awards season has been wild and unpredictable, with twists and turns at nearly every awards show. The suspense all leads up to the Academy Awards this Sunday, Feb. 28, which will air on ABC. Here are our picks for the six major categories, including not only who we think will win, but also who we think should win.

 Best Supporting Actor

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)

Who should win: Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”)

For an award that normally has a clear frontrunner, this year’s Supporting Actor category is very difficult to predict. With no obvious frontrunners, the best bet is Sylvester Stallone for his dramatic return to the “Rocky” franchise in “Creed.” Giving an incredibly raw and human performance, Stallone is the emotional centerpiece of the film, and certainly deserves the award. The only major competitor could be Tom Hardy for his haunting turn in “The Revenant,” seeing as Idris Elba, the winner of this category at the Screen Actors Guild Awards isn’t even nominated at the Oscars. The Academy has been known to give awards based on an actor’s entire career, which will help his chances, but Stallone deserves it solely on this movie’s merit as well. The sheer enthusiasm after his win at the Golden Globes will hopefully be seen again on Oscar night.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

Who should win: Rooney Mara (“Carol”)

The supporting actress category has no shortage of deserving nominees this year, but the two serious competitors are Vikander and Mara for their standout performances in “The Danish Girl” and “Carol,” respectively. Other competition comes from Jennifer Jason Leigh for her vicious turn in “The Hateful Eight.” Rooney Mara gave the best female performance of the year with her subtle portrayal of a young woman discovering love and desire. Unfortunately, she might not win in this category—she really had the leading role in the film, which makes her supporting nomination feel a little misplaced. Vikander will likely win for her wonderful year of acting, although she was better in her other supporting role in “Ex Machina.” She also won the SAG award for Best Supporting Actress, which is usually a decent indicator for the Oscars. No matter who wins this category, all of the women nominated are certainly deserving of the statue.

Best Lead Actor

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)

Finally. He’s been knocked down time and time again for being too young or too unlikeable, but it’s finally Leo’s year. His brutal and physical performance in “The Revenant” is almost certain to finally land him an Academy Award, and it is wholly deserved. Of course, he is one of the greatest actors working today and deserves it for his entire career, but he truly is fantastic in “The Revenant.” His visceral depiction of a 19^th century frontiersman was very physically demanding, and since the struggles that he encountered during filming are so well-documented, the Academy is sure to reward his dedication. He won the SAG and the BAFTA, so it’s almost guaranteed he’ll win. The only one to challenge Leo is Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs,” but his performance pales in comparison and has only a small chance of stealing the win. It’s almost a shame Leo won’t win his first Oscar in a more competitive year, making for a more satisfying victory, but his win will be extremely exciting nonetheless.

Best Lead Actress

Who will win: Brie Larson (Room)

Who should win: Brie Larson (Room)

Brie Larson is pretty much a lock to win the Oscar for Lead Actress, having won the award at every other awards show this year. Her stunning portrayal of maternal love in “Room” is absolutely worthy, and there are no other nominees that match the emotion she shows in the film. Cate Blanchett may be the only other actress that could win, only because she’s an Academy regular and, well, she’s Cate Blanchett. Saoirse Ronan has a shot as well, but neither of these actresses are very likely to beat out Larson for the Oscar. It’d be a shock if anyone but her wins this award.

Best Director

Who will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)

Who should win: George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road”)

The directing category this year is wide open. Every director on the list is deserving of their nomination, and frankly, all of them would also deserve to win. Lenny Abrahamson is the least likely to get the gold for “Room,” but the other four nominees all have a fairly good chance to win. Tom McCarthy and Adam McKay were both great storytelling directors in “Spotlight” and “The Big Short,” respectively, whereas George Miller and Alejandro Iñárritu were great visual and stylistic directors in “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Revenant.” “Mad Max” is a technical masterpiece with perfect direction, and George Miller is the most worthy of the award. Plus, it’s the 70-year-old’s first nomination for the fourth movie in the franchise he created, so everyone would love to see him win.Miller’s directing is definitely the most showy of all the nominees, and Iñárritu’s win in this category last year may work against him, although his second straight winning of best director at the Director’s Guild of America Awards  and his victory in the category at the BAFTAs definitely show some momentum for the Oscars. It’ll be very close, but Iñárritu is the one who will take it.

Best Picture

What will win: “The Big Short”

What should win: “Spotlight”

Best Picture is mainly a two-horse race between “Spotlight,” the account of the Boston Globe uncovering a scandal of the Catholic Church, and “The Big Short,” which is about the economic crash of 2008. “The Revenant” is the third most likely candidate after winning the BAFTA for Best Picture, but it is much less deserving of the two frontrunners and will be less appealing to the Academy as well. “Spotlight” and “The Big Short” are both based on true stories with great ensemble casts (“Spotlight” won the SAG award for best ensemble), two things the Oscars love to give Best Picture to. Though chaos is the point of “The Big Short,” “Spotlight” is more clean and restrained with its storytelling, and is the best film of the year. However, “The Big Short” has the edge to win after winning the Producers Guild of America award for Best Picture, and every movie to win this has gone on to receive Best Picture at the Oscars, since the PGA implemented the same voting style as the Academy. If history repeats itself, “The Big Short” will take the top prize of the night, but don’t discount the deserving “Spotlight” just yet.

Read the original article here: http://themash.com/blog/entertainment/2016/02/16/oscar-picks-will-win-vs-win/